MORE NEWS, 12-15: THE COPENHAGEN REPORT; EMISSIONS PICTURE WORSENING…; …BUT WORSENING MORE SLOWLY; BIG WIND FROM FLA TO CA VIA ORE

THE COPENHAGEN REPORT
Progress made in Copenhagen talks, sticking points remain: Chinese official
December 15, 2009 (Xinhua via China View)

"Progress has been made in the climate talks in Copenhagen but negotiators are still engaged in heated debate on some issues, the head of the Chinese delegation to the UN-led climate talks said…

"Xie Zhenhua, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that at the start of the talks, the debate focused on what draft texts should serve as the basis for discussion after some unofficial texts of the draft was leaked…[but] the Bali Road Map was upheld with the emergence of two draft texts proposed by the chairs of two major working groups…[though the Chinese delegation is] not fully satisfied with the texts…"

From AP via YouTube

"…[I]ssues in the texts need further discussion and modification, and the ensuing substantial discussion on the texts would be very hard, given the differences in national interests and understandings of the Kyoto Protocol…Many sticking points are yet to be resolved, such as the binding targets of emissions reduction for the United States…"

From StartLoving2 via YouTube

"Ministers arrived in Copenhagen over the weekend to work for consensus…More than 100 heads of state and government are expected to be arriving later in the week for a climate summit to endorse efforts to fight global warming…

"…The United States…announced a new plan to promote clean energy technologies in developing countries, despite its reluctance to make more concessions for a deal…"


EMISSIONS PICTURE WORSENING…
Global carbon emissions budget 10% off track for 2000-2050, and could run out by 2034
December 1, 2009 (PriceWaterhouseCoopers)

"Very few of the G20 nations are on track to live within their carbon budgets for 2000-50 according to a new report by economists and climate change specialists at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP(PwC). The report reviews G20 carbon intensity levels between 2000-2008 and the distance to go to 2050, underlining the case for an ambitious deal in Copenhagen.

"The report estimates a maximum global carbon budget for the period from 2000 to 2050 of just under 1,300 GtCO2, with national breakdowns for the G20 on an annual basis, to give the world a fair chance of limiting global temperature rises to no more than 2ºC (relative to pre-industrial levels), without sacrificing long term economic growth."

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"Against the levels implied by the estimates, global carbon emissions are already 10% off track, with even the EU currently 7% behind. At current rates of carbon intensity improvement, the world will already have exceeded its estimated global carbon budget for the first half of this century by 2034, 16 years ahead of schedule…Such a ‘business as usual’ scenario could result in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations exceeding 1000ppm CO2e by the end of the century with potentially disastrous implications for the climate system and the global economy.

"Using PwC’s global long-term economic growth and energy consumption model, the study derives plausible annual carbon budgets and carbon intensity pathways for the global economy and the individual G20 economies between 2000 and 2050, consistent with a consensus view of a 2ºC stabilisation scenario. The PwC analysis estimates a global energy-related carbon emissions budget to be under 1,300 GtCO2 for the period from 2000 to 2050, to have a fair chance of restricting global warming to 2C…"

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"PwC’s carbon budget analysis provides the basis for constructing two new PwC Low Carbon Economy indices, examining carbon intensity reduction achievements between 2000-2008 as compared to estimated carbon budgets for this period (the PwC Low Carbon Achievement index), and the mountain the world now needs to climb to get back onto a low carbon trajectory by 2020 (PwC Low Carbon Challenge Index) and continue on this track to 2050…

"Key facts from the report are…[1] One fifth of the global carbon budget for the first half of this century has gone in just eight years…[2] Global carbon debt in 2000-8 roughly equivalent to the combined 2008 emissions of China and the US…[3] G20 need to cut carbon intensity levels by 35% by 2020 - four times the annual rate achieved in 2000-8…[4] Global emissions from energy use need to peak by around 2015, declining to 2009 levels by 2020…[5] Collective policy pledges of G20 stronger than before, but still may not be sufficient to get back on to a 2ºC trajectory by 2020…"


…BUT WORSENING MORE SLOWLY
Rising prices will curtail energy consumption says DOE
John Funk, December 14, 2009 (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

"The American appetite for energy will grow by just 14 percent over the next quarter century as energy efficiency and high prices drive down demand, the U.S. Department of Energy said...

"In its annual long-term forecast, the department's Energy Information Administration predicted slower growth in overall energy demand and a shift toward renewable energy…[B]y 2035, fossil fuels like coal and oil will drop from today's 84 percent to about 78 percent…"

click thru for the complete slide presentation

"The report is silent on future gasoline prices, though it does forecast less of a dependence on foreign oil because of lower demand and a switch to biofuels. Natural gas prices are expected to climb…despite huge new U.S. production gains, because electric utilities are expected to switch to [cleaner-burning] natural gas…

"…[The] forecast does not include the impact of proposed climate change legislation now pending in Congress…[but it] predicts carbon dioxide emissions will grow at the rate of three-tenths of a percent a year, a forecast that would change if Congress were to require power plants, refineries and factories to capture and store carbon dioxide…"

click thru for the complete slide presentation

"Key points in this year's initial forecast…[1] Efficiency gains will reduce overall energy demand by 15 percent over the period…[2] The growth in demand for electricity will creep up at just 1 percent per year over the next 25 years despite population growth as mandated conservation programs in more than half the states, including Ohio, kick in…[3] Automobiles will average 40 miles per gallon by 2025, with hybrids dominating the market…[4] Biofuels, including corn ethanol and ethanol from grasses, combined with a slight up-tick in U.S. crude oil production, will lessen the nation's dependence on foreign oil…

"…[5] Coal-fired power plants, which now generate half of the power consumed in the nation (88 percent in Ohio), will decline to about 44 percent nationally. (No word on Ohio)…[6] Renewable technologies like wind and solar will surge from about 9 percent of all power produced now to 17 percent by 2035. Natural-gas fired generation will also increase…[7] U.S. natural gas production from shale and other unconventional sources will increase, pushing out imports from Canada and abroad. But new uses for gas will mean price increases, doubling today's prices..."


BIG WIND FROM FLA TO CA VIA ORE
GE Receives $1.4 Billion Contract to Supply Turbines for Largest Wind Farm Ever Built in the US; Caithness Energy’s Oregon Wind Farm to Use GE’s Advanced 2.5xl Machines
December 10, 2009 (GE Energy)

"GE Energy…has received a $1.4 billion contract from independent power producer Caithness Energy to supply wind turbines and provide services for an 845-megawatt (MW) wind farm project to be located in Oregon. The wind farm, called Shepherds Flat, has received the majority of the necessary government permits to operate and is ready to be built. When completed it will be larger than any wind farm currently in operation…

"Stretching across 30 square miles of Gilliam and Morrow Counties in north-central Oregon, near the town of Arlington, the 845-megawatt Shepherds Flat project marks the US debut and largest single global order of GE’s 2.5xl wind turbines. A total of 338 turbines will be installed…The Shepherds Flat wind farm is the first in North America to deploy GE’s 2.5xl wind turbine, which has been proven in Europe and Asia…"

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"Caithness Energy estimates that the $2 billion project will inject $16 million annually of direct economic benefits into Oregon, and will employ 400 workers during construction and 35 during operation. Construction will be on a grand scale not only because of the large number of turbines, but because 85 miles of road and 90 miles of power connection to the grid will be built. Construction will begin in 2010 and will be completed in 2012.

"GE Energy Financial Services -- with a portfolio of more than 40 wind farms with a total capacity to produce more than 6 Gigawatts of electricity -- is investing in the project…[and] will provide ten years of operational and maintenance services to the project…The 2.5xl wind turbines for the Shepherds Flat wind farm will be assembled at GE’s site in Pensacola, Florida…"

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"Under three 20-year power purchase agreements, the Shepherds Flat wind farm will supply renewable energy to Southern California Edison… The project will help California meet…its capacity needs…[its] renewable energy goals…[and the California Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) which, if adopted nationally, would drive the development of New Energy]…

"With the capacity to generate two billion kilowatt-hours per year of renewable energy, the wind farm will represent more than one-tenth of Southern California Edison's overall renewable energy portfolio. The project will provide enough clean energy to power approximately 235,000 average California households…and will avoid more than 1.5 million tons a year in greenhouse gas emissions…"